Man’s domination over terrestrial ecosystems deeply affects the world’s abiotic environment and the biotic diversity of ecosystems. Among the interactions that take place between these abiotic and biotic modifications, we propose to analyse the consequences of the increase in temperature and atmospheric CO2 for the phenology, growth and reproduction of introduced and indigenous species and to model the likely changes in the potential distribution of several species.

Four objectives have been identified:

1. To test under competitive conditions whether the increase in CO2 advantages invasive species more than indigenous species as regards phenology, growth and reproduction;
2. To analyse changes in the chemical composition of plants and their consequences for several herbivores and pathogens of potential use in biological pest control;
3. To assess the effects of an increase in temperature and a decrease in precipitation on the phenology of a few herbaceous and woody species;
4. To forecast the changes in the geographical distribution of the main European tree species according to the various IPCC scenarios, and thereby to clarify how global warming may affect biodiversity.

In terms of management and subsequent practical use, this project will assess the variations in biological invasion impacts in conditions of increasing atmospheric CO2:

1) occurrence or not of a surge in invasive events depending on the relative performances of introduced and indigenous species;

2) probability of a loss of efficiency of biological control methods due to changes in the chemical composition of plants.

This project has also made it possible to supplement the European phenology monitoring mechanism and to pursue the development of phenological models simulating the distributional trends of plant species. These simulations have helped to pinpoint the regions where biodiversity is the most vulnerable to global change.