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Integrated system of follow-up and evaluation of negotiations on climate starting from COP-15

Phase 1

The project started at the end of summer 2009. A strong effort was made to offer a set of coordinated or integrated simulations which could be useful during the discussions in Copenhagen on December 2009.

This led especially to:

  1. Implementation of three complementary models: TIAM, GEMINI-E3 and GENIE to realize integrated analyses of climate and techno-economic scenarios.
  2. Development of five scenarios which actually frame well the results of Copenhagen negotiations.
  3. Implementation of a statistical emulation method of models GENIE-1 and GENIE-2 which currently allows us to giving immediate answers to some questions concerning the effect on the climate variables of different evolution profiles of GHG concentrations.
  4. Website development describing the above scenarios, giving useful information on the utilized models and enabling the interactive exploitation of simulation results.
  5. Building of an exploration system of the results of these simulations which allows displaying, in the form of comparison between two contrasting scenarios, the evolution in the course of time of different economic, energetic and climatic indicators.

This system is already available to public and, in particular, to persons in charge of climate negotiations.

Phase 2

In the second phase, which started in 2010, we analyzed the decisions made during Copenhagen conference and made new tools available to prepare negotiations of the 16th Parties Conference in Cancun.

This led to:

  1. Providing to a group of authorized experts and negotiators a collaborative platform allowing them exploring many scenarios, exchanging with the modelers and between them and also to possibly ask for new scenarios.
  2. Development of eight new scenarios to prepare Cancun negotiations.
  3. Addition of precipitation charts to the climate results generated by the GENIE model.
  4. Development of methodologies taking into account uncertainty in the climatic, macro-economic and technical-economic models.
  5. Dissemination and promotion of made works through events and scientific publications.
  6. Automatic analysis of interactions between technological hypotheses and climate policies.

The interactive forum of the website is online since the beginning of 2010; scenarios preparing Cancun are online since the end of 2010; methodologies taking into account uncertainty have been published online at the beginning of 2011 and have been accepted for publishing on international reviews.

Coordinators

Alain Haurie (KANLO)

Partnership

ORDECSYS

Funding
MEEDDM
Budget
112 600€ TTC
  • Adaptation