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FAST: Analyse and spatialization of integrated scenarios of global change on French forest

FAST project aims to analyze the possible regional evolutions of metropolitan forest considering climate and biotic hazards resulting from integrated regional scenarios, i.e. coupling climate models with constraints and corresponding economic models, proposing different mitigation and adaptation strategies.

In particular, we will quantify the consequences of hypotheses concerning evolution options of both this field and mitigation strategies: products and wood demand, sylviculture options, wood energy.

Models of forest ecosystems biophysical functioning will be implemented for high definition (8x8 km) regionalization, allowing new definitions of possible impacts on the French forest, plain and mountain.

At the same time, forests’ vulnerability to past, current or simulating the future climate and biotic hazards (studied in the ANR programs “vulnerability, environment, climate”) will be integrated, in order to propose a spatial representation of certain derived risks, hazards – whose occurrence and strength will be defined on a regional scale – and vulnerability.

Predictable consequences of both abiotic factors, extreme included (extreme temperatures, drought, ozone, fires…), and biotic hazards (illness, fungi, destructive insects) will be analyzed and, on a trial basis, risks resulting from interaction between biotic and abiotic hazards will be prospected  for a few “model” cases.

The incertitude sources will be considered on climate forcing, on process representation in a spatial model and also on vulnerability of each ecosystem. Different challenges will be taken into account, from potential presence of species up to the risk of dieback or mortality, with a central focus on forest productivity.

In the proposed spatial analysis of potential risks of climate change on forest sector, we will cross an approach by ecosystem (type of forests, of soils) with a sector adaptation one (type of management, economic constraints).

The consortium assembled for this project mainly relies on two important French laboratories expert in this field (INRA and LSCE). Two teams from CERFACS and CNRM will also give their scientific support.

  • Adaptation
  • Impacts